Friday, March 2, 2012

The 2009 Report on Hospital Operating Room Cabinets, Cases, Tables, and Other Furniture: World Market Segmentation by City [Paperback]


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Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for hospital operating room cabinets, cases, tables, and other furniture across over 2000 cities. For the season reported, estimates receive for that latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for that city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share town is of the region and from the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-a-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players inside the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details on the product level. The analysis also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply just unavailable, inside a comparable or consistent manner in practically all with the cities in the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for hospital operating room cabinets, cases, tables, as well as other furniture. Additionally, it shows how a P.I.E. is divided across the world's cities. In order to create these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that's often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The notion of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically describes something which is dormant, not observable, or otherwise not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is usually based on economists since the industry earnings of the market when that market becomes accessible and attractive for everyone by competing firms. It is really a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in a efficient manner. It is typically expressed since the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is determined at the given level within the value chain. There might be latent demand with the retail level, in the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. better levels in the value chain being always smaller compared to the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels from the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for hospital operating room cabinets, cases, tables, and other furniture isn't actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a marketplace is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from the quantity of factors, such as insufficient international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior about the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a very city market.

Another reason sales don't equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions inside value with the dollar, therefore, don't figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar because the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used with this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in return rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary inside a substantial way in comparison to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On one other hand, latent demand may be typically higher than actual sales as there in many cases are distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the amount of latent demand.

As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective with the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist of their present form (i.e., at the brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all sorts of the gamers can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will probably nevertheless be a global latent need for hospital operating room cabinets, cases, tables, and also other furniture with the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, as well as the actual identity from the players involved, while very important to certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent need for hospital operating room cabinets, cases, tables, along with other furniture on a city-by-city basis, I made use of a multi-stage approach. Before using the approach, one needs a basic theory from where such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely around the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there exists an assumption governing the shape and kind of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level from the value chain, occurs if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they need to perceive a latent demand and be capable to serve that demand in a minimal return. The single most significant variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other money at higher levels from the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or alterations in utility for that product in question.

Ignoring, for that moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption may be a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the typical propensity to use would fall. The normal propensity to eat may be the level of consumption divided from the a higher level income, or perhaps the slope from the line in the origin for the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and discovered it to become true inside short-run (mostly depending on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the reduced the common propensity to consume. This sort of consumption function is labeled "A" inside figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This kind of consumption function is show as "B" inside figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to use is constant.







Is it declining or perhaps is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, within the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter time horizon, the greater consumption can depend upon wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is much more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries without any income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). As the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, within this study an extremely particular school of... --This text refers on the Digital edition.





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